Lincoln-Nautilus 2019 model

Will Ford Cut the Edge and Lincoln Nautilus by 2023? Here are some Theories

There is an interesting rumour going around that the Ford Edge and Edge-based Lincoln Nautilus program has been cancelled by Ford. The story comes from 

There’s a surprising story going around about the Ford Edge and Edge-based Lincoln Nautilus, claiming Ford has cancelled the program to replace the Edge. The allegation comes from forecasting and consulting firm AutoForecast Solutions (AFS) vice president Sam Fiorani.

Fiorani’s prediction, which first published in an AFS report, appears to have been covered by Automotive News Europe. The report was further unearthed with more complexities surrounding the issue. The kernel is this: Fiorani heard from “multiple sources” that when the Edge’s current generation is kaput in 2023, production of the Edge and Nautilus will cease at the Oakville, Ontario, plant that builds them for North America. The Edge is also built in China, and assembly could continue there, with Lincoln Nautilus production shifting to China, too.

Ford Edge , will it be dropped from the line up?

Since the issue has circulated, Ford responded with inconsistencies and switched between denial and no comment. The automaker declined to say anything to AutoNews Europe. When The Detroit Bureau asked for comment later the same day, a Ford spokesperson e-mailed the statement, “We have no plans to exit the segment, particularly as Edge sales were up 3% to nearly 140,000 Edges in the U.S. last year. Since its launch in 2006, we have sold more than 1.6 million Edges in America. Customers are loving the all-new Edge ST, with retail sales up 41% in 2019. We also are building on that success with the launch of the Edge ST-Line, which is now available for order, plus upgraded features for the 2021 Edge.”

A similar response was given when When Motor1 sought comment.  Ford didn’t reply but Lincoln did, with, “The Nautilus plays and will continue to play an important role in Lincoln’s growing SUV portfolio which includes the Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. Lincoln is investing in growth segments like SUVs and we have no plans to exit the segment.” When The Detroit News contacted Ford, a spokesperson sent a shorter but similar version of the statement given earlier to The Detroit Bureau. 

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Apparently, it’s surprising that we are discussing Edge’s possible demise. The recession-proof midsize five-seat vehicle has sold less than 108,000 units just twice since going on sale in 2006 — that first year when it moved 2,201 units, and during the worse economic crisis of 2009 when it sold 88,548. However, the Fusion has always outsold the Edge, up to and including last year, and yet the fairly reasonable numbers didn’t prevent Ford from terminating the popular car.

In theory, there are three potential causes for Edge’s potential demise.

  1. The least possible is that Ford has too many similarly-sized crossovers in the pipeline, and with the Edge’s weak sales performance in Europe, it drew the short straw (the Nautilus was up 11% to 31,711 units in the U.S. last year, taking the crown as Lincoln’s bestseller, but was down 33% at the end of Q1 this year). The Ford Escape, which is about 7 inches shorter than the Edge and also seats five, is more than $6,000 less expensive. The Explorer, which is 10 inches longer than the Edge and seats seven, costs only $1,665 more than the Edge. And coming soon are the Escape-based Bronco Sport and its derivatives — and Ford has more expansive plans for the Bronco and Mustang than we’ve imagined so far. Then there’s the European Ford Fusion-based soft-roader that calls the Subaru Outback its spirit animal and is expected to be about the length of the current Edge. Fiorani said Ford might think the segment’s a touch crowded at home, and could have a better chance of gaining market share with new nameplates instead of the venerable Edge.
  1. Another theory sees Ford planning to kill the midsize crossover as a negotiating tactic with Unifor; the automaker and the labor union are scheduled to begin negotiating a new contract to succeed the current agreement that expires in September.
  1. The most devastating possibility is that the end of the Edge and Nautilus means the beginning of a Ford retreat from Canada. The plant lost the Flex and Lincoln MKZ last year. Without anything new to build after 2023, “there’s no future for Oakville” and its 4,200 workers. Shuttering the 67-year-old Oakville Assembly Complex would leave two Ford engine plants in Canada (the Mustang’s Coyote 5.0-liter V8 and the PV-8 family serving the F-Series pickups), but no vehicle assembly facility for the first time in about 100 years. 

Whether the story is true or not, Edge’s owners must feel very sad even if its just rumours.